← Wallets
−$33.0kYes · avg 25¢ → 17¢ · $64.7k−$2,083Yes · avg 11¢ → 6.5¢ · $3,250−$525Yes · avg 7¢ → 4.5¢ · $945−$7Yes · avg 18¢ → 16¢ · $82−$341Yes · avg 12¢ → 2.2¢ · $79−$24Yes · avg 4¢ → 2.1¢ · $27
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 6.8 wins, so it did -6.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-6.6 pts
Called / graded
6/12
Expected from price
6.8
Flagged volume
$2.25M
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$215k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) at 50¢) and the edge is -11.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 27% · n=1
40–60¢
57% vs 49% · n=7
60–80¢
67% vs 74% · n=3
80–100¢
0% vs 85% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.09M
Last 30 days +$5,221 · $52.42M volume · 49,897 trades · since Jan 11, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$11.67M
Open P&L · 41 positions
−$683.2k
Closed-position win rate
93%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
286d
941 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 12 | 6 | 6.8 | -6.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $231.2k 6.3× usual |
excluded |
 Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds | LOW BUY Cincinnati Reds @ 47¢ | $18.7k | excluded |
 Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 27¢ | $19.0k | missed |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 78¢ | $24.8k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 78¢ | $206.6k 5.6× usual |
excluded |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 53¢ | $64.1k | missed |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 77¢ | $127.8k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Nuggets @ 53¢ | $52.3k | excluded |
| Spread: Pistons (-10.5) | LOW BUY Pistons @ 50¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Celtics @ 69¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Rockets @ 73¢ | $209.8k 5.7× usual |
missed |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 51¢ | $66.8k | called |
| Magic vs. Pistons | HIGH BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $380.3k 10.4× usual |
called |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 54¢ | $30.7k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 56¢ | $27.3k | excluded |
| Magic vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Magic @ 48¢ | $36.6k | missed |
| Heat vs. Hornets | LOW BUY Hornets @ 52¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Celtics | MED BUY Magic @ 85¢ | $202.2k 5.5× usual |
missed |
| Timberwolves vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 49¢ | $13.6k | excluded |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 48¢ | $51.2k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 44¢ | $42.5k | excluded |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | MED BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 70¢ | $57.7k | called |
 Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes | MED BUY Miami Hurricanes @ 53¢ | $43.1k | excluded |
 Wild vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 44¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| Lightning vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 48¢ | $72.0k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 78¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Raptors @ 56¢ | $28.0k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 51¢ | $20.4k | called |
 Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 51¢ | $100.0k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 50¢ | $25.0k | called |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Rams @ 42¢ | $20.4k | missed |
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