Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$141
Return on staked
-11.7%
Bets
6/12 won
Edge vs price
-6.6 pts ±13.6
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +8.5 pts (4/6). Newer half: -21.7 pts (2/6). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 19, 12:50 ESTMay 30, 18:15 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 27¢ | missed | 147d ago |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | 53¢ | missed | 169d ago |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | 73¢ | missed | 183d ago |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | 51¢ | called | 183d ago |
| Magic vs. Pistons | 78¢ | called | 185d ago |
| Magic vs. 76ers | 48¢ | missed | 192d ago |
| Magic vs. Celtics | 85¢ | missed | 195d ago |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | 70¢ | called | 210d ago |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | 51¢ | called | 263d ago |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | 51¢ | called | 269d ago |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | 50¢ | called | 270d ago |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | 42¢ | missed | 278d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.