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+$28Petr Yan · avg 58¢ → 58¢ · $3,327−$32Movsar Evloev · avg 50¢ → 50¢ · $3,164−$97Ramazan Temirov · avg 49¢ → 48¢ · $3,083−$9K27 · avg 39¢ → 38¢ · $695−$3No · avg 98¢ → 97.5¢ · $448
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.2 wins, so it did -23.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-23.1 pts
Called / graded
2/5
Expected from price
3.2
Flagged volume
$361.7k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$47k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Celtics vs. Bucks at 57¢) and the edge is -39.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
33% vs 51% · n=3
60–80¢
0% vs 75% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 89% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$240.2k
Last 30 days −$89.3k · $16.95M volume · 22,314 trades · since Aug 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.79M
Open P&L · 297 positions
−$815.0k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
427d
1770 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 2 | 3.2 | -23.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs | LOW BUY JiJieHao @ 45¢ | $14.7k | missed |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 43¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
 Dota 2: 1win vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs | LOW BUY BetBoom Team @ 50¢ | $29.0k | missed |
 Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $62.1k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.3k | excluded |
 Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Rockets @ 75¢ | $33.6k | missed |
| Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 | LOW BUY Liquid @ 89¢ | $61.4k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Celtics @ 57¢ | $29.7k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 83¢ | $62.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
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