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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 6.4 wins, so it did -14.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-14.0 pts
Called / graded
5/10
Expected from price
6.4
Flagged volume
$1.23M
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$105k10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Rams vs. Seahawks at 56¢) and the edge is -20.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 39% · n=1
40–60¢
33% vs 52% · n=3
60–80¢
60% vs 73% · n=5
80–100¢
100% vs 80% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$3.52M
Last 30 days +$0 · $85.10M volume · 47,328 trades · since Sep 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$15.08M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
406d
845 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 10 | 5 | 6.4 | -14.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $21.8k | called |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 80¢ | $54.0k | called |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 75¢ | $13.3k | missed |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 74¢ | $19.3k | missed |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | MED BUY Celtics @ 74¢ | $102.0k | called |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | HIGH BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $285.4k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $82.0k | excluded |
 Kings vs. Hurricanes | LOW BUY Kings @ 39¢ | $24.9k | missed |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | HIGH BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $208.0k 3.6× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 49¢ | $114.0k | missed |
 Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic | LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 74¢ | $39.8k | called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 33¢ | $100.9k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $17.0k | missed |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Patriots @ 62¢ | $61.5k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Broncos @ 35¢ | $69.0k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 56¢ | $13.3k | called |
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