Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$281
Return on staked
-28.1%
Bets
5/10 won
Edge vs price
-14.0 pts ±14.6
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -13.6 pts (2/5). Newer half: -14.4 pts (3/5).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 25, 09:48 ESTMay 20, 17:37 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Thunder | 69¢ | called | 156d ago |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | 80¢ | called | 170d ago |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | 75¢ | missed | 182d ago |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | 74¢ | missed | 182d ago |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | 74¢ | called | 182d ago |
| Kings vs. Hurricanes | 39¢ | missed | 265d ago |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | 49¢ | missed | 266d ago |
| Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic | 74¢ | called | 266d ago |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | 50¢ | missed | 271d ago |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | 56¢ | called | 272d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.