AV23IUa

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 29 of 52. The prices it paid implied about 28.8 wins, so it did +0.4 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+0.4 pts over 52 bets). Without its single best bet: -0.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

+0.4 pts

Called / graded

29/52

Expected from price

28.8

Flagged volume

$5.21M

Sample size52 graded

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.8 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$3k

52 graded bets in the order they resolved · 29 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Por at 45¢) and the edge is -0.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

40–60¢

51% vs 51% · n=35

60–80¢

65% vs 64% · n=17

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$1.87M

Last 30 days −$74.9k · $70.66M volume · 20,231 trades · since Mar 31, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢	$23.4k	56%	38d ago	missed
US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen	MED BUY Alex Michelsen @ 45¢	$69.0k 2.1× usual	45%	45d ago	excluded
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08?	MED SELL Yes @ 72¢	$48.8k	28%	45d ago	excluded
US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien	MED BUY Learner Tien @ 63¢	$41.6k	63%	47d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto Playoffs	MED BUY MOUZ @ 37¢	$99.9k 3.0× usual	37%	47d ago	excluded
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?	LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢	$11.2k	51%	47d ago	excluded
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-05?	MED BUY Yes @ 46¢	$46.0k	46%	49d ago	missed
US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Dalibor Svrcina	MED BUY Luciano Darderi @ 57¢	$28.7k	57%	51d ago	called
Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies	LOW BUY Baltimore Orioles @ 49¢	$12.2k	49%	53d ago	excluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?	MED BUY Yes @ 66¢	$35.4k	66%	53d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	MED BUY MOUZ @ 47¢	$53.9k	47%	54d ago	called
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-30?	MED BUY Yes @ 52¢	$104.0k 3.2× usual	52%	54d ago	excluded
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-29?	MED BUY Yes @ 65¢	$48.8k	65%	56d ago	missed
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28?	MED BUY Yes @ 60¢	$198.0k 6.0× usual	60%	56d ago	excluded
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves	MED BUY Atlanta Braves @ 52¢	$52.0k	52%	57d ago	called
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	LOW BUY Legacy @ 45¢	$13.8k	45%	57d ago	called
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-23?	MED BUY Yes @ 51¢	$51.0k	51%	61d ago	missed
Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-22?	MED BUY Yes @ 62¢	$67.9k 2.1× usual	62%	62d ago	excluded
Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima	MED BUY Taylor Fritz @ 64¢	$47.9k	64%	63d ago	excluded
Cincinnati Open: Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina	MED BUY Iga Swiatek @ 59¢	$31.6k	59%	64d ago	called
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FURIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	MED BUY FURIA @ 58¢	$39.7k	58%	64d ago	excluded
Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev	LOW SELL Brandon Nakashima @ 99.9¢	$24.1k	0%	66d ago	excluded
Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev	LOW BUY Brandon Nakashima @ 50¢	$12.0k	50%	66d ago	excluded
Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Fils	MED BUY Jiri Lehecka @ 22¢	$20.0k	22%	67d ago	excluded
Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo	MED SELL Rafael Jodar @ 67¢	$33.3k	33%	67d ago	missed
Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo	LOW BUY Rafael Jodar @ 69¢	$13.7k	69%	67d ago	called
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	MED BUY Ian Machado Garry @ 27¢	$20.0k	27%	69d ago	excluded
Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Denis Shapovalov	MED BUY Denis Shapovalov @ 34¢	$30.0k	34%	69d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C	MED BUY 100 Thieves @ 46¢	$95.7k 2.9× usual	46%	70d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C	MED BUY MOUZ @ 64¢	$43.6k	64%	70d ago	excluded
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 44¢	$17.6k	44%	71d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C	LOW BUY 100 Thieves @ 46¢	$18.4k	46%	71d ago	missed
Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$61.4k	0%	72d ago	excluded
Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?	MED BUY Yes @ 61¢	$37.5k	61%	72d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: magic vs TheMongolz (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D	LOW SELL TheMongolz @ 99.9¢	$17.7k	0%	72d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Astralis (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B	LOW BUY Astralis @ 54¢	$10.8k	54%	73d ago	called
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils	MED SELL Arthur Fils @ 42¢	$38.3k	58%	74d ago	called
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils	MED SELL Arthur Fils @ 41¢	$35.5k	59%	74d ago	called
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils	HIGH BUY Arthur Fils @ 44¢	$117.2k 3.6× usual	44%	74d ago	missed
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles	MED BUY Baltimore Orioles @ 65¢	$32.5k	65%	78d ago	missed
National Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Gabriel Diallo	LOW BUY Gabriel Diallo @ 61¢	$20.8k	61%	80d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs	LOW BUY paiN @ 42¢	$21.0k	42%	84d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier	LOW BUY Wildcard @ 38¢	$15.1k	38%	89d ago	excluded
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	MED BUY Spain @ 59¢	$40.0k	59%	96d ago	excluded
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	MED BUY Yes @ 43¢	$140.2k 4.3× usual	43%	96d ago	missed
Will France win on 2026-07-18?	MED BUY Yes @ 52¢	$69.2k 2.1× usual	52%	97d ago	missed
Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo	MED BUY Andrey Rublev @ 63¢	$30.0k	63%	97d ago	excluded
Will France win on 2026-07-18?	MED BUY Yes @ 51¢	$67.7k 2.1× usual	51%	98d ago	missed
France vs. England: Team to Win	MED BUY France @ 66¢	$208.5k 6.3× usual	66%	98d ago	missed
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	MED BUY Argentina @ 78¢	$87.0k 2.6× usual	78%	104d ago	excluded
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	MED BUY No @ 65¢	$86.6k 2.6× usual	65%	104d ago	excluded
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	MED SELL Yes @ 36¢	$34.5k	64%	104d ago	excluded
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	MED BUY Yes @ 52¢	$50.0k	52%	104d ago	excluded
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	MED BUY Yes @ 60¢	$40.5k	60%	105d ago	excluded
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	MED BUY Yes @ 60¢	$127.4k 3.9× usual	60%	106d ago	called
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	MED BUY Yes @ 61¢	$90.0k 2.7× usual	61%	106d ago	called
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 73¢	$102.2k 3.1× usual	73%	108d ago	called
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	MED BUY Yes @ 53¢	$100.0k 3.0× usual	53%	111d ago	excluded
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	LOW SELL Yes @ 24¢	$12.7k	76%	114d ago	excluded
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	MED BUY Yes @ 51¢	$26.9k	51%	114d ago	excluded
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	MED SELL Over @ 81¢	$24.4k	19%	115d ago	excluded
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢	$15.0k	55%	116d ago	excluded
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢	$19.8k	58%	117d ago	called
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	MED BUY Yes @ 56¢	$35.8k	56%	117d ago	called
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	MED BUY Yes @ 60¢	$30.0k	60%	119d ago	called
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	MED BUY Yes @ 64¢	$25.0k	64%	119d ago	called
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	LOW BUY Netherlands @ 50¢	$10.0k	50%	120d ago	excluded
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢	$20.0k	65%	121d ago	excluded
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	MED BUY Yes @ 64¢	$32.0k	64%	123d ago	called
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	MED BUY Yes @ 66¢	$33.0k	66%	124d ago	called
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢	$18.0k	60%	125d ago	excluded
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	MED BUY Yes @ 68¢	$54.4k	68%	125d ago	called
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz	LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 53¢	$16.0k	53%	125d ago	excluded
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	MED BUY Yes @ 62¢	$93.0k 2.8× usual	62%	126d ago	excluded
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	MED BUY Yes @ 59¢	$60.0k	59%	128d ago	excluded
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢	$20.0k	46%	128d ago	excluded
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢	$20.0k	57%	128d ago	called
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	MED BUY Yes @ 67¢	$100.0k 3.0× usual	67%	129d ago	excluded
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	MED BUY Yes @ 67¢	$234.6k 7.1× usual	67%	129d ago	called
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	LOW BUY Spain @ 60¢	$20.0k	60%	130d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	MED BUY BetBoom Team @ 45¢	$60.0k	45%	131d ago	called
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	MED BUY Yes @ 51¢	$51.0k	51%	131d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	MED BUY MOUZ @ 36¢	$30.0k	36%	131d ago	excluded
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	MED BUY Yes @ 21¢	$15.0k	21%	132d ago	excluded
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	MED BUY Yes @ 58¢	$57.7k	58%	132d ago	missed
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢	$20.0k	58%	132d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	LOW BUY PARIVISION @ 56¢	$15.0k	56%	134d ago	missed
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	LOW BUY Golden Knights @ 41¢	$15.0k	41%	134d ago	missed
Spurs vs. Knicks	MED BUY Spurs @ 47¢	$50.0k	47%	135d ago	missed
Spurs vs. Knicks	MED BUY Spurs @ 47¢	$38.9k	47%	137d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Knicks	MED BUY Spurs @ 47¢	$100.0k 3.0× usual	47%	137d ago	called
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 61¢	$15.9k	61%	138d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	LOW BUY GamerLegion @ 51¢	$25.0k	51%	138d ago	missed
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)	LOW BUY Gabriel Bonfim @ 50¢	$20.0k	50%	139d ago	excluded
Thunder vs. Spurs	LOW BUY Spurs @ 60¢	$15.0k	60%	148d ago	called
Spurs vs. Thunder	MED BUY Thunder @ 60¢	$50.0k	60%	150d ago	called
Thunder vs. Spurs	LOW BUY Spurs @ 58¢	$15.9k	58%	152d ago	called
Thunder vs. Spurs	LOW BUY Spurs @ 57¢	$25.0k	57%	152d ago	called
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	MED BUY Knicks @ 46¢	$50.0k	46%	154d ago	called
Thunder vs. Spurs	MED BUY Thunder @ 46¢	$50.0k	46%	154d ago	called
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5	LOW BUY Over @ 50¢	$20.0k	50%	155d ago	excluded
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5	LOW SELL Under @ 50¢	$10.0k	50%	155d ago	missed
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)	LOW BUY Spurs @ 47¢	$20.0k	47%	156d ago	missed
Spurs vs. Thunder	MED BUY Thunder @ 69¢	$50.0k	69%	156d ago	called
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	MED BUY Spurs @ 72¢	$138.3k 4.2× usual	72%	172d ago	excluded
Spread: Pistons (-10.5)	LOW BUY Magic @ 50¢	$20.0k	50%	177d ago	excluded
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?	MED BUY Yes @ 30¢	$21.6k	30%	177d ago	excluded
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)	LOW BUY Thunder @ 48¢	$19.4k	48%	179d ago	excluded
Lakers vs. Rockets	MED BUY Lakers @ 43¢	$50.6k	43%	180d ago	missed
Celtics vs. 76ers	MED BUY 76ers @ 35¢	$14.4k	35%	180d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	LOW BUY Spurs @ 39¢	$24.1k	39%	180d ago	excluded
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	MED BUY Timberwolves @ 49¢	$32.9k	49%	181d ago	called
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	LOW BUY Spurs @ 58¢	$11.2k	58%	183d ago	called

AV23IUa

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