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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 6.0 wins, so it did -16.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-16.2 pts
Called / graded
4/12
Expected from price
6.0
Flagged volume
$7.31M
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$948k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Knicks vs. Spurs at 33¢) and the edge is -23.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
50% vs 32% · n=2
40–60¢
25% vs 49% · n=8
60–80¢
50% vs 68% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$5.05M
Last 30 days −$1.87M · $165.98M volume · 54,502 trades · since Apr 25, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$35.32M
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$433.3k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
182d
1456 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 12 | 4 | 6.0 | -16.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Patriots vs. Bears | MED BUY Patriots @ 37¢ | $147.5k | excluded |
 Ducks vs. Devils | HIGH BUY Ducks @ 34¢ | $101.8k | excluded |
| Kings vs. Islanders | LOW BUY Islanders @ 49¢ | $26.3k | excluded |
| Sharks vs. Senators | MED BUY Senators @ 56¢ | $147.8k | excluded |
 Bucks vs. Wizards | LOW BUY Bucks @ 40¢ | $80.0k | excluded |
| Avalanche vs. Devils | MED BUY Avalanche @ 49¢ | $219.7k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 49¢ | $12.0k | missed |
| Commanders vs. 49ers | MED BUY 49ers @ 77¢ | $231.0k | excluded |
| Steelers vs. Buccaneers | MED BUY Steelers @ 57¢ | $199.5k | excluded |
| Jets vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 76¢ | $304.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
 Memphis vs. Tulane | LOW BUY Tulane @ 31¢ | $17.5k | excluded |
| Falcons vs. Saints | LOW BUY Saints @ 52¢ | $52.0k | excluded |
| Falcons vs. Saints | MED BUY Saints @ 53¢ | $212.0k | missed |
| Titans vs. Ravens | MED BUY Titans @ 15¢ | $26.8k | excluded |
| Raiders vs. Saints | LOW BUY Raiders @ 37¢ | $74.0k | excluded |
 Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees | LOW BUY New York Yankees @ 49¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
| Vikings vs. Bears | MED BUY Bears @ 66¢ | $264.0k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 55¢ | $27.2k | excluded |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 48¢ | $70.1k | missed |
 UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) | MED BUY Mackenzie Dern @ 64¢ | $119.1k | excluded |
 San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves | MED BUY Atlanta Braves @ 54¢ | $135.0k | excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card) | MED BUY Dricus Du Plessis @ 67¢ | $191.1k | excluded |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | HIGH BUY Colorado Rockies @ 29¢ | $102.0k | excluded |
 Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY No @ 38¢ | $47.3k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY No @ 51¢ | $12.8k | missed |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | LOW BUY No @ 69¢ | $48.3k | called |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Knicks @ 33¢ | $16.5k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Thunder @ 41¢ | $164.0k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 46¢ | $16.0k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 32¢ | $96.0k | missed |
| New York Yankees vs. New York Mets | LOW BUY New York Yankees @ 48¢ | $96.0k | excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card) | HIGH BUY Malcolm Wellmaker @ 69¢ | $424.4k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) | MED SELL Tommy Gantt @ 99.9¢ | $519.3k 4.1× usual |
excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) | HIGH BUY Tommy Gantt @ 64¢ | $300.7k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) | HIGH BUY Daniel Barez @ 42¢ | $275.5k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers | HIGH BUY Texas Rangers @ 51¢ | $277.6k 2.2× usual |
missed |
| UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) | MED BUY Grant Dawson @ 58¢ | $191.1k | excluded |
| UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) | HIGH BUY Jared Gordon @ 72¢ | $450.6k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) | MED BUY Grant Dawson @ 58¢ | $33.9k | excluded |
| UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) | MED BUY Grant Dawson @ 58¢ | $82.7k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | MED BUY Knicks @ 41¢ | $156.1k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | MED BUY Celtics @ 61¢ | $244.0k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | MED BUY Celtics @ 68¢ | $226.7k | excluded |
| Spread: Pistons (-10.5) | MED BUY Magic @ 50¢ | $50.1k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | MED BUY Celtics @ 68¢ | $186.1k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Rockets @ 56¢ | $110.7k | called |
| UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Prelims) | HIGH BUY Alexander Hernandez @ 53¢ | $293.4k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Nuggets @ 51¢ | $213.5k | excluded |
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