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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did -17.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-17.4 pts
Called / graded
1/5
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$818.5k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$67k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Lakers vs. Rockets at 56¢) and the edge is -32.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 9% · n=2
40–60¢
50% vs 51% · n=2
60–80¢
0% vs 67% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$94.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $13.50M volume · 6,798 trades · since Apr 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2.36M
Open P&L · 67 positions
−$2.43M
Closed-position win rate
97%
71 closed
Wallet age · markets
187d
137 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 1 | 1.9 | -17.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 1.6¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢ | $10.1k | missed |
 Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 6.7¢ | $20.1k | missed |
 Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $45.0k | missed |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 67¢ | $141.5k 2.6× usual |
missed |
 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners | MED BUY Seattle Mariners @ 56¢ | $147.6k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 67¢ | $173.7k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Lakers @ 11¢ | $17.9k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 76¢ | $62.5k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Rockets @ 56¢ | $190.1k 3.5× usual |
called |
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