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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -22.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-22.3 pts
Called / graded
0/3
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$111.6k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$13.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.48M volume · 1,347 trades · since Mar 07, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$50.8k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$37.4k
Closed-position win rate
36%
36 closed
Wallet age · markets
231d
39 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 0 | 0.7 | -22.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 9.7¢ | $10.6k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 17¢ | $20.0k | missed |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 78¢ | $22.2k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | LOW SELL Yes @ 57¢ | $10.5k | missed |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | LOW BUY Yes @ 96.1¢ | $17.6k | called |
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