WhaleGrader Log inSign up
← Wallets

jwp9999

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 9 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 8.4 wins, so it did +6.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +5.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.1 pts
Called / graded
9/9
Expected from price
8.4
Flagged volume
$5.41M
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±7.9 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$14k
9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 9 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
$0$14k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? at 87¢) and the edge is +5.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
100% vs 94% · n=9
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$41.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $21.40M volume · 14,812 trades · since Jun 12, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$41.4k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$342
Closed-position win rate
72%
334 closed
Wallet age · markets
499d
314 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other776.5+6.6 pts
Crypto221.9+4.6 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $61.6k0% 120d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $11.0k0% 128d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $48.0k0% 148d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢ $20.0k97% 149d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $20.0k0% 149d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢ $18.0k97% 149d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $18.0k0% 149d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $64.9k0% 149d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $27.5k0% 164d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $40.0k98% 165d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $50.0k94% 173d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $52.4k100% 177d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $11.4k99% 178d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $41.6k100% 178d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $46.1k98% 180d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $24.3k87% 197d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?MED SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $319.2k
9.0× usual
0% 197d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?MED BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $332.8k
9.4× usual
99% 198d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.9¢ $182.9k
5.1× usual
1% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $190.4k
5.4× usual
100% 200d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?MED SELL No @ 95.8¢ $46.0k4% 201d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW SELL No @ 82¢ $12.3k18% 201d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ $48.0k98% 201d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $86.0k
2.4× usual
99% 202d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $94.6k
2.7× usual
99% 203d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $40.0k92% 204d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 92¢ $15.3k8% 209d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $15.0k90% 209d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $54.9k99% 210d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $18.4k99% 212d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $100.2k
2.8× usual
98% 214d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $28.8k98% 214d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $15.0k97% 218d agoexcluded
Trump out as President by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $14.9k1% 218d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $18.8k97% 218d agocalled
Trump out as President by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $18.0k0% 218d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 97.2¢ $73.3k
2.1× usual
97% 219d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 97.2¢ $30.0k97% 219d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $42.1k96% 220d agocalled
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $42.2k98% 222d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 95.4¢ $17.8k95% 225d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $22.0k95% 225d agocalled
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $20.0k98% 225d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 94.7¢ $18.0k95% 228d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $24.5k89% 230d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $36.4k0% 230d agoexcluded
Trump out as President by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $60.0k98% 233d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $36.3k99% 234d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $65.0k100% 239d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $20.7k100% 239d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $32.7k100% 240d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $60.0k100% 240d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $31.7k100% 245d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $17.5k100% 245d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $14.2k100% 245d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $10.9k100% 245d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $70.4k99% 246d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $19.8k99% 248d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $10.6k99% 249d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $11.6k100% 250d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $15.1k99% 250d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $20.0k98% 251d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ $18.4k96% 260d agocalled
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $26.2k99% 260d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 94.7¢ $17.5k95% 260d agocalled
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $34.5k100% 268d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $11.2k100% 270d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $13.2k100% 270d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $10.8k100% 273d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.2¢ $40.6k98% 274d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $12.0k100% 275d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $10.0k100% 275d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $22.5k100% 277d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $40.3k100% 279d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.7¢ $10.2k96% 286d agocalled
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $86.0k
2.4× usual
100% 287d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.2¢ $11.5k97% 287d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.2¢ $68.0k97% 287d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢ $16.6k92% 288d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢ $81.0k
2.3× usual
92% 288d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 92¢ $115.0k
3.2× usual
8% 288d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 92¢ $115.0k
3.2× usual
92% 289d agocalled
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $104.5k
2.9× usual
1% 289d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $187.3k
5.3× usual
100% 289d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 91¢ $200.2k
5.6× usual
9% 289d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 90¢ $216.0k
6.1× usual
90% 289d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ $90.0k
2.5× usual
90% 290d agocalled
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $107.1k
3.0× usual
99% 290d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $100.0k
2.8× usual
99% 291d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $146.7k
4.1× usual
100% 293d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $20.0k100% 296d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $68.3k100% 298d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $52.7k100% 299d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $64.5k100% 301d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $133.9k
3.8× usual
100% 302d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $38.6k100% 304d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $34.8k1% 307d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $55.6k99% 314d agoexcluded

Share this record

WhaleGrader badge
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xe1194d05876b71b05572c1b59bd49a157f21e30f"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xe1194d05876b71b05572c1b59bd49a157f21e30f.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xe1194d…