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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 19 of 29. The prices it paid implied about 16.3 wins, so it did +9.1 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+9.1 pts over 29 bets). Without its single best bet: +7.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+9.1 pts
Called / graded
19/29
Expected from price
16.3
Flagged volume
$4.37M
Sample size29 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$1.1M29 graded bets in the order they resolved · 19 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? at 38¢) and the edge is +7.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 38% · n=1
40–60¢
50% vs 51% · n=16
60–80¢
83% vs 65% · n=12
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2.91M
Last 30 days +$108.8k · $138.54M volume · 127,313 trades · since Dec 22, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$32.22M
Open P&L · 52 positions
−$3.90M
Closed-position win rate
96%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
306d
869 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 29 | 19 | 16.3 | +9.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Lions vs. Bills | LOW BUY Bills @ 68¢ | $12.8k | called |
 Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $169.7k 2.7× usual |
missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $737.8k 11.6× usual |
called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY No @ 38¢ | $84.4k | called |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | HIGH BUY No @ 61¢ | $125.0k | excluded |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | HIGH BUY No @ 52¢ | $515.4k 8.1× usual |
missed |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $241.8k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | HIGH BUY No @ 46¢ | $237.1k 3.7× usual |
called |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | HIGH BUY No @ 54¢ | $438.0k 6.9× usual |
called |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 66¢ | $20.7k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Spurs @ 41¢ | $34.0k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 59¢ | $70.7k | called |
 Golden Knights vs. Ducks | LOW BUY Ducks @ 49¢ | $15.3k | missed |
| Spread: Thunder (-11.5) | LOW BUY Suns @ 51¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | HIGH BUY Celtics @ 73¢ | $255.5k 4.0× usual |
called |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | HIGH BUY Hawks @ 49¢ | $129.9k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Ducks vs. Oilers | LOW BUY Oilers @ 62¢ | $10.8k | called |
| Ducks vs. Oilers | MED BUY Oilers @ 60¢ | $38.4k | called |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | MED BUY Spurs @ 51¢ | $69.0k | called |
| Capitals vs. Blue Jackets | MED BUY Blue Jackets @ 58¢ | $62.0k | missed |
| Capitals vs. Blue Jackets | HIGH BUY Blue Jackets @ 54¢ | $144.4k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| Hurricanes vs. Islanders | LOW BUY Islanders @ 55¢ | $21.6k | missed |
| Penguins vs. Devils | LOW BUY Devils @ 51¢ | $20.5k | missed |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | MED BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 51¢ | $81.2k | excluded |
| Wild vs. Panthers | MED BUY Wild @ 58¢ | $52.9k | called |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | MED BUY Lightning @ 70¢ | $47.1k | excluded |
| Spread: Thunder (-4.5) | MED BUY Thunder @ 47¢ | $65.1k | missed |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | MED BUY Lightning @ 64¢ | $51.0k | called |
| Predators vs. Capitals | MED BUY Capitals @ 60¢ | $91.4k | called |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | MED BUY Lightning @ 63¢ | $188.3k 3.0× usual |
called |
| Predators vs. Capitals | MED BUY Capitals @ 62¢ | $60.1k | called |
| Kings vs. Golden Knights | LOW BUY Kings @ 44¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Bruins vs. Panthers | MED BUY Panthers @ 55¢ | $152.4k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | MED BUY Lightning @ 65¢ | $27.8k | excluded |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | MED BUY Lightning @ 63¢ | $46.5k | called |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
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