Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$511
Return on staked
+17.6%
Bets
19/29 won
Edge vs price
+9.1 pts ±9.1
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +1.1 pts (8/14). Newer half: +16.6 pts (11/15).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Feb 03, 10:19 ESTSep 17, 10:28 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions vs. Bills | 68¢ | called | 37d ago |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | 73¢ | missed | 117d ago |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | 60¢ | called | 120d ago |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | 38¢ | called | 121d ago |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | 52¢ | missed | 128d ago |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | 46¢ | called | 131d ago |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | 54¢ | called | 132d ago |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | 66¢ | missed | 142d ago |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | 41¢ | called | 149d ago |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | 59¢ | called | 150d ago |
| Golden Knights vs. Ducks | 49¢ | missed | 163d ago |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | 73¢ | called | 183d ago |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | 49¢ | called | 184d ago |
| Ducks vs. Oilers | 62¢ | called | 187d ago |
| Ducks vs. Oilers | 60¢ | called | 187d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.