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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 6.1 wins, so it did -29.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
-29.7 pts
Called / graded
4/7
Expected from price
6.1
Flagged volume
$800.0k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$77k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Xi Jinping out in 2025? at 93¢) and the edge is -35.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 50% · n=1
80–100¢
67% vs 93% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$79.8k
Last 30 days +$1,571 · $9.58M volume · 6,839 trades · since Oct 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$615.1k
Open P&L · 159 positions
−$368.9k
Closed-position win rate
97%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
—
694 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 3 | 2 | 2.4 | -13.8 pts |
| Crypto | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.5 pts |
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.8 | -89.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +7.0 pts |
History
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