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+$36.0kNo · avg 80¢ → 97.8¢ · $192.8k+$6,642No · avg 71¢ → 82¢ · $49.6k−$896No · avg 38¢ → 36¢ · $19.2k+$1,449No · avg 82¢ → 93.5¢ · $11.7k−$479Yes · avg 38¢ → 36¢ · $10.6k−$123Oklahoma State · avg 53¢ → 52¢ · $4,265−$19Dolphins · avg 51¢ → 50¢ · $1,871−$4,368Yes · avg 23¢ → 6.5¢ · $1,757
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?pending
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?pending
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankeesexcluded
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 10 of 25. The prices it paid implied about 12.9 wins, so it did -11.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (-11.5 pts over 25 bets). Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
-11.5 pts
Called / graded
10/25
Expected from price
12.9
Flagged volume
$928.8k
Sample size25 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$74k25 graded bets in the order they resolved · 10 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers at 38¢) and the edge is -14.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 39% · n=3
40–60¢
38% vs 50% · n=16
60–80¢
17% vs 63% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$99.3k
Last 30 days +$175.2k · $32.05M volume · 4,271 trades · since Mar 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$7.39M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$7.03M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
216d
1691 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 25 | 10 | 12.9 | -11.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $20.6k | pending |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $13.3k | pending |
 Spread: Bears (-3.5) | LOW BUY Bears @ 44¢ | $52.9k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $15.5k | pending |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $18.4k | pending |
| Spread: Bears (-3.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 55¢ | $11.5k | missed |
 Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays | MED BUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 60¢ | $36.1k | missed |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians | LOW BUY Chicago White Sox @ 42¢ | $14.7k | called |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals | MED BUY Bengals @ 56¢ | $61.6k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | LOW BUY Texans @ 58¢ | $29.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Texans (-2.5) | LOW BUY Texans @ 52¢ | $30.3k | excluded |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals | LOW BUY Bengals @ 55¢ | $15.3k | missed |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | LOW BUY Eagles @ 48¢ | $20.1k | missed |
| Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers | MED BUY Washington Nationals @ 38¢ | $34.2k | called |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees | LOW BUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 42¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees | LOW BUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 46¢ | $12.7k | missed |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles | LOW BUY Baltimore Orioles @ 42¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels | LOW BUY Los Angeles Angels @ 50¢ | $10.0k | called |
| Cowboys vs. Giants | LOW BUY Giants @ 39¢ | $16.6k | called |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies | LOW BUY Colorado Rockies @ 46¢ | $13.4k | missed |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals | LOW BUY Colorado Rockies @ 43¢ | $15.3k | missed |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 47¢ | $28.2k | missed |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays | LOW BUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 60¢ | $32.9k | called |
 Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees | LOW BUY Seattle Mariners @ 43¢ | $19.4k | called |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays | LOW BUY Toronto Blue Jays @ 39¢ | $11.5k | called |
| San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres | LOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 60¢ | $27.0k | missed |
| Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays | LOW BUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 61¢ | $28.6k | excluded |
| San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves | LOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 45¢ | $10.9k | missed |
 Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $24.6k | excluded |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $24.9k | excluded |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $22.8k | missed |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY No @ 43¢ | $12.9k | missed |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $33.0k | excluded |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $12.8k | missed |
 Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | LOW BUY Hurricanes @ 59¢ | $20.9k | called |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | LOW BUY Pittsburgh Pirates @ 35¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 66¢ | $13.2k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 66¢ | $28.6k | missed |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) | LOW BUY Thunder @ 55¢ | $16.5k | called |
| Golden Knights vs. Ducks | LOW BUY Ducks @ 51¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 57¢ | $25.0k | called |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Rockets @ 64¢ | $28.9k | missed |
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?pendingBUY No @ 81¢$15.5k
LOW 0x16bb…8492 · 1d ago
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?pendingBUY No @ 90¢$18.4k
LOW 0x16bb…8492 · 1d ago
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesexcludedBUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 42¢$21.0k
LOW 0x16bb…8492 · 31d ago
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