What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 24 of 36. The prices it paid implied about 28.5 wins, so it did -12.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (-12.4 pts over 36 bets). Information, not advice.How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-12.4 pts
Called / graded
24/36
Expected from price
28.5
Flagged volume
$8.56M
Sample size36 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$1.1M
36 graded bets in the order they resolved · 24 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? at 59¢) and the edge is -13.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 35% · n=1
40–60¢
50% vs 53% · n=2
60–80¢
75% vs 74% · n=12
80–100¢
67% vs 87% · n=21
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.09M
Last 30 days +$0 · $16.14M volume · 786 trades · since Mar 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
