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What this means. A wallet put $401.1k on No, at a price that gave it a 94% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-12.4 pts over 36 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$401.1k
BUY No @ 94.3¢ · 425,458 shares in 4 fills
Size ≥ $250kHeavy favorite4 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)2.1× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet aekghas took No (buy) for $401.1k at an average 94.3¢. At that price the market implied a 94% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $401.1k+3
4 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 94¢ means
94%chance the market gave
−1647American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 94.3¢
- Implied odds
- 94.3%
- Size
- $401.1k
- Placed
- May 22, 11:17 EDT
- Market close
- May 21, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- aekghas
- Tx
- 0xbb034aed…
This wallet's graded record
24/36-12.4 pts
expected 28.5 from price
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Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $75.6k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $22.2k | excluded |