← Wallets
+$1,447Yes · avg 87¢ → 91.5¢ · $29.4k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +17.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+17.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$183.9k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±37.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$3,297
Last 30 days +$2,327 · $624.7k volume · 395 trades · since Jul 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$18.3k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$21.5k
Closed-position win rate
43%
81 closed
Wallet age · markets
475d
83 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +17.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢ | $31.7k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $13.6k | called |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $22.3k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW BUY No @ 79¢ | $15.8k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $40.7k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.2¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
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