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Gleaming-Pear

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$1.10M
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$17.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $9.93M volume · 7,978 trades · since May 16, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$230.4k
Open P&L · 60 positions
−$83.5k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
161d
651 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $15.0k0% 80d agoexcluded
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ $23.0k98% 83d agoexcluded
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $37.4k100% 86d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $55.4k
2.4× usual
100% 87d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $15.7k99% 92d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $33.1k99% 93d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $118.8k
5.2× usual
100% 133d agoexcluded
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $149.8k
6.5× usual
100% 137d agoexcluded
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $15.1k0% 138d agoexcluded
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $10.0k100% 138d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $18.5k98% 139d agoexcluded
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $15.0k100% 142d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $15.0k0% 142d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $214.8k
9.4× usual
0% 144d agoexcluded
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $122.6k
5.3× usual
0% 145d agoexcluded
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $11.5k100% 146d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $15.5k98% 151d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $75.6k
3.3× usual
100% 154d agoexcluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $32.8k100% 156d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $47.2k
2.1× usual
0% 157d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $26.4k100% 158d agoexcluded
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $10.8k98% 159d agoexcluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $19.5k97% 160d agoexcluded

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