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What this means. A wallet put $431.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 84% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-12.4 pts over 36 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$431.2k
BUY No @ 84¢ · 512,815 shares
Size ≥ $250kEarly (>24h before close)2.2× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet aekghas took No (buy) for $431.2k at an average 84¢. At that price the market implied a 84% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $431.2k+3
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 84¢ means
84%chance the market gave
−528American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 84¢
- Implied odds
- 84.1%
- Size
- $431.2k
- Placed
- May 23, 03:32 EDT
- Market close
- May 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- aekghas
- Tx
- 0xd5ab0085…
This wallet's graded record
24/36-12.4 pts
expected 28.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +16 ptsNo price · entry 84¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $24.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $100.1k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.6k | excluded |