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Thaws

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?+$1,126No · avg 91.5¢ → 97.8¢ · $17.6k
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$20.7k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2,012
Last 30 days +$306 · $211.2k volume · 554 trades · since Nov 21, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
−$3,121
Open P&L · 5 positions
+$1,109
Closed-position win rate
81%
96 closed
Wallet age · markets
337d
100 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $10.6k0% 145d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $10.1k95% 147d agocalled

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