What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.9 wins, so it did -18.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice.How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-18.7 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
3.9
Flagged volume
$1.60M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$17k
5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spread: Spurs (-6.5) at 51¢) and the edge is -35.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
100% vs 51% · n=1
60–80¢
0% vs 79% · n=1
80–100¢
67% vs 88% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$379.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $40.08M volume · 37,957 trades · since May 05, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
