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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.5 wins, so it did -11.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-11.0 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
3.5
Flagged volume
$463.5k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$42k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Lakers vs. Rockets at 56¢) and the edge is -24.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
50% vs 54% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 73% · n=1
80–100¢
50% vs 88% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$157.7k
Last 30 days +$449 · $4.22M volume · 2,537 trades · since Apr 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$800.8k
Open P&L · 97 positions
−$645.7k
Closed-position win rate
96%
149 closed
Wallet age · markets
206d
239 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 3.5 | -11.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres | MED BUY San Diego Padres @ 60¢ | $31.1k | excluded |
 Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 88¢ | $51.7k | called |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | MED BUY Celtics @ 71¢ | $57.2k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 81¢ | $31.5k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 56¢ | $24.1k | called |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | MED BUY Celtics @ 73¢ | $44.6k | called |
| Spread: Rockets (-4.5) | LOW BUY Rockets @ 51¢ | $59.6k | missed |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Magic @ 52¢ | $38.9k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 87¢ | $25.1k | missed |
 Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $32.6k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Suns | MED BUY Suns @ 56¢ | $67.1k | excluded |
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