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+$216.9kNo · avg 50¢ → 80¢ · $584.4k−$216.9kYes · avg 50¢ → 20¢ · $150.7k−$5,555No · avg 62¢ → 56¢ · $50.6k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 4.8 wins, so it did +24.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +18.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+24.9 pts
Called / graded
7/9
Expected from price
4.8
Flagged volume
$9.08M
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$555k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz at 23¢) and the edge is +18.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 23% · n=1
40–60¢
60% vs 52% · n=5
60–80¢
100% vs 65% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.01M
Last 30 days +$135.5k · $98.66M volume · 32,111 trades · since Apr 03, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.68M
Open P&L · 12 positions
−$159.5k
Closed-position win rate
50%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
204d
432 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 9 | 7 | 4.8 | +24.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Titans vs. Ravens | LOW BUY Ravens @ 96.7¢ | $60.1k | excluded |
 Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-18? | LOW BUY No @ 63¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
 Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-09-11? | LOW BUY No @ 45¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
 US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz | MED BUY Ben Shelton @ 23¢ | $45.0k | called |
| US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen | MED BUY Frances Tiafoe @ 58¢ | $100.4k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
 Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-09-08? | LOW BUY No @ 62¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $29.4k | excluded |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Argentina @ 41¢ | $256.1k 5.4× usual |
excluded |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 41¢ | $236.0k 5.0× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | MED BUY No @ 62¢ | $170.8k 3.6× usual |
called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $27.4k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | MED BUY No @ 47¢ | $132.8k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $20.9k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY No @ 38¢ | $96.6k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $41.7k | called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY United States @ 54¢ | $108.9k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Mexico @ 49¢ | $773.7k 16.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $25.3k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢ | $29.4k | missed |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | MED BUY No @ 45¢ | $115.1k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $20.4k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | MED BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $197.4k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $877.5k 18.6× usual |
called |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY No @ 56¢ | $76.2k | excluded |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $1.30M 27.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | LOW SELL No @ 40¢ | $52.6k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | HIGH BUY No @ 33¢ | $130.9k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 57¢ | $28.8k | excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $593.4k 12.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $154.7k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY No @ 42¢ | $20.8k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $675.7k 14.4× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Morocco (-1.5) | MED BUY Morocco @ 31¢ | $47.7k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | MED SELL No @ 42¢ | $518.2k 11.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | LOW SELL No @ 50¢ | $42.9k | excluded |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY No @ 48¢ | $36.4k | excluded |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | MED BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $141.4k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $45.5k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $377.7k 8.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $403.1k 8.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | MED SELL Yes @ 65¢ | $131.7k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $63.5k | missed |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $20.7k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $303.1k 6.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY No @ 43¢ | $21.0k | called |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
 Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 54¢ | $15.6k | called |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $25.6k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $40.6k | called |
 Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $46.4k | excluded |
 Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? | LOW BUY No @ 37¢ | $20.2k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY No @ 38¢ | $25.6k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 86¢ | $50.5k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY 76ers @ 37¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? | LOW BUY No @ 57¢ | $19.7k | called |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? | LOW BUY No @ 38¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Spurs @ 57¢ | $32.1k | called |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $96.0k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 48¢ | $28.2k | excluded |
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