Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$534
Return on staked
+59.3%
Bets
7/9 won
Edge vs price
+24.9 pts ±16.1
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 24, 16:24 EDTSep 08, 20:52 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz | 23¢ | called | 45d ago |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | 41¢ | missed | 96d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | 62¢ | called | 102d ago |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | 49¢ | missed | 118d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | 64¢ | called | 120d ago |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | 54¢ | called | 135d ago |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | 69¢ | called | 156d ago |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? | 57¢ | called | 177d ago |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | 57¢ | called | 182d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.