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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 5.7 wins, so it did +2.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -2.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+2.5 pts
Called / graded
6/11
Expected from price
5.7
Flagged volume
$10.76M
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$500k11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spread: Memphis (-10.5) at 50¢) and the edge is -2.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
55% vs 52% · n=11
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$4.20M
Last 30 days −$282.0k · $508.74M volume · 15,737 trades · since Dec 22, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$111.58M
Open P&L · 11 positions
−$476.9k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
305d
1723 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 11 | 6 | 5.7 | +2.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Memphis (-10.5) | LOW BUY East Carolina @ 50¢ | $26.5k | called |
 Wild vs. Oilers | LOW BUY Wild @ 46¢ | $36.8k | excluded |
 Will France win on 2026-07-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $170.7k | missed |
| New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 55¢ | $20.1k | called |
| New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 | MED BUY Over @ 51¢ | $211.3k | called |
 Spurs vs. Knicks | MED BUY Spurs @ 47¢ | $214.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | MED BUY Spurs @ 52¢ | $142.6k | excluded |
 Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | HIGH BUY Hurricanes @ 61¢ | $340.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Spurs @ 42¢ | $228.2k | excluded |
| Hurricanes vs. Canadiens | HIGH BUY Hurricanes @ 57¢ | $335.9k | called |
| Spread: Spurs (-2.5) | MED BUY Spurs @ 52¢ | $196.0k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 56¢ | $221.2k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 36¢ | $33.4k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 | MED BUY Under @ 51¢ | $93.0k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 33¢ | $73.5k | excluded |
| Canadiens vs. Sabres | LOW BUY Canadiens @ 50¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | MED BUY Knicks @ 41¢ | $176.0k | excluded |
| Golden Knights vs. Utah | MED BUY Golden Knights @ 54¢ | $113.5k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Rockets @ 40¢ | $45.4k | excluded |
| Spread: Pistons (-10.5) | HIGH BUY Pistons @ 51¢ | $253.5k | excluded |
| Bruins vs. Sabres | HIGH BUY Sabres @ 61¢ | $297.9k | excluded |
| Spread: Thunder (-11.5) | MED BUY Thunder @ 48¢ | $245.3k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Rockets @ 59¢ | $246.7k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Nuggets @ 52¢ | $249.6k | missed |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 52¢ | $185.5k | called |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 43¢ | $190.3k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5 | MED BUY Over @ 51¢ | $234.5k | excluded |
| Spread: Celtics (-9.5) | HIGH BUY Raptors @ 51¢ | $254.5k | excluded |
| Spread: Spurs (-2.5) | HIGH BUY Spurs @ 48¢ | $363.6k | excluded |
| Spread: Hornets (-5.5) | HIGH BUY Suns @ 50¢ | $286.1k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | HIGH BUY Cavaliers @ 44¢ | $280.2k | excluded |
| Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) | MED BUY Warriors @ 51¢ | $227.2k | excluded |
| Spread: Heat (-9.5) | MED BUY Heat @ 46¢ | $51.7k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Pistons @ 55¢ | $87.2k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5 | MED BUY Over @ 52¢ | $244.5k | excluded |
| Wild vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5 | HIGH BUY Over @ 45¢ | $255.3k | excluded |
| Spread: Warriors (-7.5) | MED BUY Warriors @ 47¢ | $203.8k | excluded |
| Spread: Suns (-9.5) | MED BUY Kings @ 52¢ | $164.4k | excluded |
| Lightning vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 | MED BUY Over @ 48¢ | $137.4k | excluded |
| Penguins vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5 | HIGH BUY Over @ 49¢ | $251.8k | excluded |
| Avalanche vs. Kings: O/U 6.5 | MED BUY Over @ 46¢ | $221.5k | excluded |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 50¢ | $84.4k | excluded |
| Spread: Lakers (-12.5) | MED BUY Kings @ 50¢ | $195.7k | excluded |
| Spread: Clippers (-8.5) | MED BUY Clippers @ 51¢ | $179.5k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5 | MED BUY Over @ 52¢ | $232.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Pistons (-5.5) | MED BUY Pistons @ 49¢ | $203.7k | excluded |
| Spread: Hornets (-7.5) | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 55¢ | $162.6k | excluded |
| Heat vs. 76ers | MED BUY Heat @ 46¢ | $166.7k | excluded |
 KKS Lech Poznań vs. Kuopion PS: O/U 3.5 | HIGH BUY Over @ 51¢ | $258.3k | excluded |
 VfB Stuttgart vs. Celtic FC: O/U 3.5 | MED BUY Over @ 51¢ | $220.3k | excluded |
| Spread: Pistons (-10.5) | MED BUY Pistons @ 51¢ | $155.8k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Raptors @ 51¢ | $82.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Thunder (-4.5) | HIGH BUY Thunder @ 47¢ | $317.6k | missed |
| Spread: Knicks (-7.5) | HIGH BUY Trail Blazers @ 50¢ | $290.6k | excluded |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5) | HIGH BUY Warriors @ 50¢ | $296.7k | missed |
 Chicago State Cougars vs. Mercyhurst Lakers: O/U 129.5 | HIGH BUY Over @ 53¢ | $292.3k | excluded |
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