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+$164No · avg 89¢ → 97.8¢ · $1,832
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.5 wins, so it did -90.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-90.7 pts
Called / graded
0/5
Expected from price
4.5
Flagged volume
$436.2k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$251k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? at 77¢) and the edge is -94.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
0% vs 77% · n=1
80–100¢
0% vs 94% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$796.5k
Last 30 days +$32 · $1.97M volume · 617 trades · since Mar 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$21.5k
Open P&L · 9 positions
−$592.9k
Closed-position win rate
50%
4 closed
Wallet age · markets
214d
13 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 0 | 4.5 | -90.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 93.1¢ | $21.3k | missed |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | MED BUY No @ 93.5¢ | $55.2k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $51.3k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | MED BUY No @ 95¢ | $104.1k 4.9× usual |
missed |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $19.5k | missed |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $18.6k | called |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL No @ 98.3¢ | $32.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $44.7k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $19.0k | missed |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | MED BUY No @ 83¢ | $38.1k | missed |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $10.3k | missed |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $10.8k | missed |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 67¢ | $11.2k | missed |
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