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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.5 wins, so it did +20.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +14.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+20.7 pts
Called / graded
5/7
Expected from price
3.5
Flagged volume
$651.7k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$25k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? at 40¢) and the edge is +14.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
50% vs 36% · n=2
40–60¢
100% vs 55% · n=4
60–80¢
0% vs 64% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$310.6k
Last 30 days −$0 · $17.29M volume · 9,242 trades · since Dec 07, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$240.8k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$69.0k
Closed-position win rate
50%
200 closed
Wallet age · markets
321d
188 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 3 | 1.4 | +52.0 pts |
| Sports | 4 | 2 | 2.1 | -2.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $69.0k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY No @ 64¢ | $37.6k | missed |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $27.3k | called |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? | LOW BUY No @ 59¢ | $29.5k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $65.0k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $48.0k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 11¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $36.0k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $34.0k | excluded |
 Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $103.0k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 24¢ | $23.6k | excluded |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢ | $29.4k | excluded |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Patriots @ 19¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $32.0k | missed |
 Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $18.8k | called |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 57¢ | $28.5k | called |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 58¢ | $17.2k | called |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $12.4k | called |
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