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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did -28.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-28.0 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$2.13M
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$725.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $13.08M volume · 5,418 trades · since Apr 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.38M
Open P&L · 29 positions
−$2.10M
Closed-position win rate
82%
88 closed
Wallet age · markets
206d
117 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 1 | 1.8 | -28.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 | MED BUY Over @ 85¢ | $114.5k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 | MED BUY Over @ 75¢ | $35.2k | called |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $57.6k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | MED BUY Celtics @ 77¢ | $49.4k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 88¢ | $20.1k | excluded |
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.9k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | HIGH BUY Celtics @ 88¢ | $357.3k 5.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $353.9k 5.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $365.0k 5.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $13.7k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 73¢ | $89.8k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 86¢ | $177.4k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Hornets vs. Magic | MED BUY Hornets @ 61¢ | $190.6k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Magic vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Magic @ 48¢ | $18.6k | missed |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | MED BUY Suns @ 57¢ | $76.2k | excluded |
| Heat vs. Hornets | LOW BUY Hornets @ 70¢ | $46.4k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Hawks | MED BUY Hawks @ 77¢ | $52.4k | excluded |
| Clippers vs. Kings | LOW BUY Clippers @ 87¢ | $94.1k | excluded |
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