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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +8.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+8.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$196.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$92.8k
Last 30 days +$1,363 · $7.98M volume · 5,058 trades · since Mar 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$320.1k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
222d
3167 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -43.0 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | +60.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-16? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
 England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW SELL England @ 44¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 75¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 87¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Argentina @ 72¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
 Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 57¢ | $28.1k | missed |
 FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $24.9k | excluded |
 Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.0k | excluded |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.7¢ | $21.9k | excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $20.9k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x478967…