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−$201Panthers · avg 60¢ → 58¢ · $7,840−$243Ravens · avg 51¢ → 48¢ · $3,294
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 10 of 18. The prices it paid implied about 9.5 wins, so it did +2.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 18 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -1.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+2.7 pts
Called / graded
10/18
Expected from price
9.5
Flagged volume
$784.7k
Sample size18 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$68k18 graded bets in the order they resolved · 10 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? at 28¢) and the edge is -1.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
33% vs 29% · n=3
40–60¢
57% vs 46% · n=7
60–80¢
62% vs 68% · n=8
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.52M
Last 30 days −$54.2k · $85.04M volume · 90,173 trades · since Sep 11, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$13.96M
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$444
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
773d
2112 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 18 | 10 | 9.5 | +2.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Pacers (-7.5) | LOW BUY Mavericks @ 51¢ | $11.0k | called |
 Lions vs. Panthers | LOW BUY Panthers @ 42¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals | LOW BUY Jaguars @ 43¢ | $29.5k | called |
| Giants vs. Rams | LOW BUY Giants @ 28¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Chiefs | LOW BUY Colts @ 48¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Chiefs | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 68¢ | $25.2k | excluded |
 LSU vs. Ole Miss | LOW BUY Ole Miss @ 41¢ | $12.3k | called |
 Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Mexico @ 49¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $146.7k 7.9× usual |
called |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 67¢ | $13.4k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 66¢ | $13.2k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 41¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 28¢ | $11.4k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 23¢ | $11.5k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 35¢ | $13.0k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY 76ers @ 29¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 73¢ | $76.1k 4.1× usual |
excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 61¢ | $12.2k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Suns | MED BUY Warriors @ 42¢ | $28.4k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Warriors @ 42¢ | $32.4k | missed |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW SELL Magic @ 40¢ | $17.8k | missed |
 Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers | LOW BUY Purdue Boilermakers @ 79¢ | $31.4k | excluded |
| Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers | MED BUY Purdue Boilermakers @ 77¢ | $26.8k | excluded |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars | LOW BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 41¢ | $20.3k | called |
| Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans | LOW BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 69¢ | $20.5k | excluded |
| Spread: Clippers (-8.5) | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 51¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 74¢ | $19.7k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 60¢ | $28.1k | missed |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 70¢ | $35.0k | called |
| Spread: Thunder (-4.5) | LOW BUY Rockets @ 52¢ | $20.8k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW SELL Broncos @ 35¢ | $10.5k | called |
| Nets vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 75¢ | $11.2k | called |
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