Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$180
Return on staked
+10.0%
Bets
10/18 won
Edge vs price
+2.7 pts ±11.2
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -3.2 pts (5/9). Newer half: +8.6 pts (5/9).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 25, 12:40 ESTOct 23, 13:30 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Pacers (-7.5) | 51¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals | 43¢ | called | 20d ago |
| LSU vs. Ole Miss | 41¢ | called | 35d ago |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | 68¢ | called | 126d ago |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | 67¢ | missed | 141d ago |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | 66¢ | missed | 142d ago |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 28¢ | called | 149d ago |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | 23¢ | missed | 166d ago |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | 35¢ | missed | 170d ago |
| Warriors vs. Suns | 42¢ | missed | 190d ago |
| Warriors vs. Suns | 42¢ | missed | 190d ago |
| Hornets vs. Magic | 60¢ | missed | 190d ago |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars | 41¢ | called | 213d ago |
| Timberwolves vs. Clippers | 74¢ | called | 239d ago |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | 60¢ | missed | 241d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.