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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did -24.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-24.4 pts
Called / graded
2/7
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$405.5k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$68k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Warriors vs. Pelicans at 48¢) and the edge is -37.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 29% · n=1
40–60¢
20% vs 53% · n=5
60–80¢
100% vs 77% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$110.8k
Last 30 days +$147.6k · $77.37M volume · 19,737 trades · since Nov 11, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$14.43M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$10.93M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
347d
2349 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 2 | 3.7 | -24.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $53.3k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
 Trail Blazers vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 58¢ | $16.9k | missed |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | MED BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 50¢ | $38.8k | excluded |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 48¢ | $19.2k | excluded |
 Canucks vs. Flames | MED BUY Flames @ 60¢ | $54.6k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | LOW BUY Purdue Boilermakers @ 29¢ | $19.8k | missed |
 Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW BUY Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 54¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | MED BUY Nuggets @ 57¢ | $26.8k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | MED BUY Nuggets @ 56¢ | $26.1k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 59¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 48¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Bruins vs. Panthers | LOW BUY Bruins @ 40¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Kings vs. Hurricanes | MED BUY Hurricanes @ 61¢ | $47.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
 UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Fiziev @ 54¢ | $11.8k | missed |
| UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Saint Denis @ 77¢ | $15.3k | called |
 Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 49¢ | $19.8k | missed |
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