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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -45.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-45.6 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$115.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$22.9k
Last 30 days −$25 · $13.20M volume · 2,191 trades · since Mar 06, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$14.9k
Open P&L · 12 positions
−$17.9k
Closed-position win rate
36%
14 closed
Wallet age · markets
232d
26 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 0.9 | -45.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 25¢ | $12.9k | missed |
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $21.0k | missed |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $81.2k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xcdc537…