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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.0 wins, so it did +50.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+50.7 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
2.0
Flagged volume
$380.7k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$173.2k
Last 30 days −$775 · $10.86M volume · 7,492 trades · since Mar 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.00M
Open P&L · 9 positions
−$23.4k
Closed-position win rate
50%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
221d
623 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 3 | 1.4 | +52.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | +47.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $13.2k | called |
 Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $16.2k | called |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $21.6k | excluded |
 Wild vs. Avalanche | LOW BUY Avalanche @ 68¢ | $23.7k | excluded |
 Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 87¢ | $46.8k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? | LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 30¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 53¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 52¢ | $13.9k | called |
 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants | MED BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 66¢ | $51.7k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | MED BUY Spurs @ 52¢ | $37.9k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $17.8k | called |
| Penguins vs. Devils | LOW SELL Penguins @ 99.9¢ | $64.3k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | LOW BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 71¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
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