bossoskil1

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 20. The prices it paid implied about 8.5 wins, so it did -7.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (-7.4 pts over 20 bets). Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-7.4 pts

Called / graded

7/20

Expected from price

8.5

Flagged volume

$3.89M

Sample size20 graded

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.6 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$441k

20 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Gr at 26¢) and the edge is -11.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

0% vs 6% · n=1

20–40¢

25% vs 33% · n=8

40–60¢

25% vs 47% · n=8

60–80¢

100% vs 67% · n=3

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$4.75M

Last 30 days +$0 · $268.81M volume · 157,032 trades · since Jan 05, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner	LOW BUY LGD Gaming @ 46¢	$17.7k	46%	139d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	MED BUY LGD Gaming @ 38¢	$62.8k	38%	139d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1	LOW BUY Sharks @ 40¢	$32.8k	40%	142d ago	excluded
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	LOW BUY GIANTX @ 77¢	$20.5k	77%	146d ago	excluded
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	MED BUY GIANTX @ 61¢	$121.0k 3.0× usual	61%	146d ago	excluded
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds	MED BUY Cincinnati Reds @ 48¢	$106.2k 2.6× usual	48%	147d ago	missed
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	LOW BUY BNK FEARX @ 61¢	$23.4k	61%	150d ago	excluded
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres	LOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 49¢	$98.0k 2.4× usual	49%	152d ago	excluded
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres	MED BUY San Diego Padres @ 48¢	$152.3k 3.8× usual	48%	152d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs	LOW BUY MIBR @ 34¢	$19.1k	34%	154d ago	missed
Thunder vs. Spurs	MED BUY Spurs @ 54¢	$193.7k 4.8× usual	54%	155d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Thunder	MED BUY Spurs @ 32¢	$26.7k	32%	158d ago	missed
Spurs vs. Thunder	LOW BUY Spurs @ 51¢	$35.7k	51%	158d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Thunder	LOW SELL Spurs @ 51¢	$96.4k 2.4× usual	49%	158d ago	excluded
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner	MED BUY HANJIN BRION @ 67¢	$182.3k 4.5× usual	67%	160d ago	excluded
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets	LOW BUY New York Mets @ 47¢	$98.5k 2.4× usual	47%	161d ago	called
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves	LOW BUY Chicago Cubs @ 36¢	$35.0k	36%	163d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B	LOW BUY Legacy @ 59¢	$37.0k	59%	163d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	LOW BUY paiN @ 38¢	$63.3k	38%	164d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	LOW BUY paiN @ 37¢	$23.1k	37%	164d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B	LOW BUY Legacy @ 32¢	$24.2k	32%	164d ago	called
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	LOW BUY B8 @ 90¢	$35.9k	90%	165d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	MED BUY B8 @ 66¢	$151.6k 3.7× usual	66%	165d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	LOW BUY B8 @ 64¢	$40.5k	64%	165d ago	called
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	MED BUY B8 @ 64¢	$35.3k	64%	165d ago	called
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner	LOW BUY Nongshim Red Force @ 52¢	$10.4k	52%	168d ago	excluded
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	MED BUY Yes @ 6¢	$53.7k	6%	174d ago	missed
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 33¢	$28.5k	33%	181d ago	excluded
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner	MED SELL BetBoom Team @ 99.9¢	$249.8k 6.2× usual	0%	181d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner	MED BUY South America Rejects @ 39¢	$71.5k	39%	182d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	LOW BUY Team Liquid @ 48¢	$44.9k	48%	183d ago	excluded
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	LOW BUY Aurora @ 48¢	$10.1k	48%	183d ago	excluded
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	LOW BUY PARIVISION @ 77¢	$44.2k	77%	183d ago	excluded
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner	MED BUY Aurora @ 43¢	$70.9k	43%	183d ago	excluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	LOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 73¢	$26.2k	73%	185d ago	excluded
Rockets vs. Lakers	LOW BUY Lakers @ 42¢	$22.0k	42%	185d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage	LOW BUY Team Spirit @ 55¢	$25.1k	55%	186d ago	excluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner	MED BUY Gen.G @ 67¢	$75.2k	67%	189d ago	excluded
Warriors vs. Suns	MED BUY Suns @ 56¢	$109.0k 2.7× usual	56%	189d ago	excluded
Magic vs. 76ers	LOW BUY Magic @ 41¢	$51.5k	41%	191d ago	excluded
Heat vs. Hornets	MED BUY Heat @ 30¢	$43.1k	30%	193d ago	missed
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets	LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 27¢	$18.6k	27%	200d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	MED SELL Tundra Esports @ 99.9¢	$156.6k 3.9× usual	0%	209d ago	excluded
Pistons vs. Timberwolves	LOW BUY Pistons @ 56¢	$78.8k	56%	210d ago	excluded
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	LOW BUY Pistons @ 57¢	$26.6k	57%	235d ago	excluded
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	LOW SELL Pistons @ 57¢	$65.5k	43%	235d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1	LOW SELL Legacy @ 99.9¢	$11.2k	0%	237d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage	LOW SELL PARIVISION @ 33¢	$11.3k	67%	249d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage	LOW BUY MOUZ @ 33¢	$11.5k	33%	250d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs	LOW BUY Aurora Gaming @ 35¢	$64.9k	35%	260d ago	missed
Kings vs. Golden Knights	MED BUY Kings @ 45¢	$76.7k	45%	261d ago	missed
Predators vs. Capitals	MED BUY Predators @ 40¢	$60.0k	40%	261d ago	missed
Bruins vs. Panthers	MED BUY Bruins @ 44¢	$31.9k	44%	262d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B	LOW BUY Vitality @ 74¢	$54.0k	74%	263d ago	called
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A	MED BUY Astralis @ 49¢	$121.6k 3.0× usual	49%	263d ago	excluded
Kraken vs. Ducks	LOW BUY Kraken @ 45¢	$42.6k	45%	263d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A	LOW BUY FURIA @ 56¢	$20.9k	56%	264d ago	excluded
Maple Leafs vs. Flames	LOW BUY Flames @ 48¢	$79.3k	48%	264d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A	LOW BUY Astralis @ 52¢	$33.4k	52%	265d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B	MED BUY Team Falcons @ 74¢	$114.8k 2.8× usual	74%	265d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A	MED BUY Astralis @ 26¢	$31.6k	26%	265d ago	called
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A	LOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 50¢	$38.9k	50%	266d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A	LOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 50¢	$24.4k	50%	266d ago	called
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage	MED BUY Dplus KIA @ 26¢	$27.9k	26%	266d ago	excluded
Rangers vs. Islanders	LOW SELL Rangers @ 43¢	$13.7k	57%	269d ago	excluded

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