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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -47.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-47.5 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$496.5k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$286.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $26.65M volume · 25,735 trades · since Feb 26, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$3.09M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
53%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
240d
584 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 0.9 | -47.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Golden Knights vs. Utah | LOW BUY Golden Knights @ 53¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
 Magic vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Magic @ 48¢ | $27.9k | missed |
| Magic vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Magic @ 47¢ | $18.8k | missed |
 Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner | LOW SELL Jannik Sinner @ 99.9¢ | $41.9k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner | LOW SELL Jannik Sinner @ 99.9¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner | LOW BUY Jannik Sinner @ 53¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Oilers vs. Sharks | LOW BUY Sharks @ 51¢ | $15.8k | excluded |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | LOW BUY No @ 48¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | MED BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 51¢ | $83.1k 4.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $111.2k 5.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? | LOW BUY No @ 57¢ | $40.3k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Clippers (-8.5) | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 50¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW SELL Timberwolves @ 99.9¢ | $59.9k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Hornets (-7.5) | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 52¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
 VfB Stuttgart vs. Celtic FC: O/U 3.5 | LOW SELL Under @ 99.9¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
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