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+$318No · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $858−$318Yes · avg 50¢ → 21¢ · $222
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?called
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?called
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 13. The prices it paid implied about 7.4 wins, so it did -3.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 13 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-3.4 pts
Called / graded
7/13
Expected from price
7.4
Flagged volume
$2.57M
Sample size13 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$392k13 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? at 64¢) and the edge is -6.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 4% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 45% · n=4
60–80¢
86% vs 68% · n=7
80–100¢
100% vs 82% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$362.9k
Last 30 days −$204 · $40.60M volume · 16,874 trades · since Feb 18, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$362.9k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$0
Closed-position win rate
38%
322 closed
Wallet age · markets
248d
258 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 9 | 4 | 4.7 | -7.7 pts |
| Sports | 4 | 3 | 2.7 | +6.3 pts |
History
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?calledSELL No @ 36¢$41.0k
MED UnderperformingForALivin · 167d ago
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?calledSELL Yes @ 34¢$29.6k
LOW UnderperformingForALivin · 174d ago
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