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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 5.4 wins, so it did -23.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-23.8 pts
Called / graded
3/10
Expected from price
5.4
Flagged volume
$8.79M
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$698k10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Knicks vs. Spurs at 37¢) and the edge is -33.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 37% · n=1
40–60¢
40% vs 49% · n=5
60–80¢
0% vs 64% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$366.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $20.63M volume · 7,693 trades · since Mar 06, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3.18M
Open P&L · 119 positions
−$2.77M
Closed-position win rate
61%
376 closed
Wallet age · markets
—
394 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 10 | 3 | 5.4 | -23.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $65.0k | missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $30.0k | missed |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | MED BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $293.2k | excluded |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 65¢ | $250.0k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Knicks @ 37¢ | $97.8k | called |
 Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | LOW BUY Hurricanes @ 60¢ | $19.0k | missed |
 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners | LOW BUY Seattle Mariners @ 56¢ | $47.9k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 41¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Knicks @ 45¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 50¢ | $36.3k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Lakers @ 72¢ | $80.3k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW SELL Pistons @ 99.9¢ | $196.7k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW BUY Pistons @ 31¢ | $22.0k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW SELL Pistons @ 7.6¢ | $23.3k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Magic | HIGH BUY Pistons @ 60¢ | $259.5k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 58¢ | $250.0k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | HIGH BUY Clippers @ 68¢ | $498.1k | missed |
| Heat vs. Hornets | MED SELL Hornets @ 99.9¢ | $732.1k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Heat vs. Hornets | HIGH BUY Hornets @ 69¢ | $499.5k | called |
| Hornets vs. Celtics | MED SELL Celtics @ 99.6¢ | $743.5k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Hornets vs. Celtics | HIGH BUY Celtics @ 68¢ | $490.3k | called |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines | MED BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 79¢ | $497.1k | excluded |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | MED SELL Arizona Wildcats @ 99.9¢ | $1.41M 5.6× usual |
excluded |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | MED BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 70¢ | $992.8k 4.0× usual |
called |
 Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | HIGH SELL Connecticut Huskies @ 75¢ | $678.9k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | MED BUY Connecticut Huskies @ 55¢ | $495.7k | called |
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