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−$3,601Yes · avg 18¢ → 17¢ · $54.4k+$2,894No · avg 53¢ → 66¢ · $14.1k+$529Yes · avg 3¢ → 3.4¢ · $4,834
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 3.9 wins, so it did -9.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-9.4 pts
Called / graded
3/9
Expected from price
3.9
Flagged volume
$3.60M
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$9k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Knicks vs. Spurs at 33¢) and the edge is -19.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 9% · n=1
20–40¢
67% vs 35% · n=3
40–60¢
0% vs 52% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 65% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.10M
Last 30 days +$12.4k · $21.06M volume · 906 trades · since Mar 08, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.13M
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$9,724
Closed-position win rate
30%
378 closed
Wallet age · markets
594d
384 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -9.0 pts |
| Sports | 8 | 3 | 3.8 | -9.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $200.1k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED SELL Spain @ 99.8¢ | $317.2k 6.4× usual |
excluded |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 60¢ | $190.0k 3.8× usual |
called |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 54¢ | $51.3k | missed |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | MED SELL Yes @ 91¢ | $45.5k | missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Spain @ 99.8¢ | $246.3k 5.0× usual |
excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 40¢ | $100.0k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Switzerland @ 25¢ | $16.8k | excluded |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Norway @ 36¢ | $22.0k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $31.5k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $18.9k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW SELL England @ 52¢ | $48.6k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 53¢ | $49.7k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $153.1k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | MED BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $77.7k | called |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 13¢ | $25.0k | called |
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $225.1k 4.5× usual |
excluded |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Knicks @ 36¢ | $48.9k | called |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | MED SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢ | $273.2k 5.5× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 54¢ | $147.7k 3.0× usual |
called |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 55¢ | $39.4k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 55¢ | $36.2k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Knicks @ 33¢ | $32.8k | called |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Spurs @ 65¢ | $96.3k | called |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 35¢ | $43.8k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Thunder @ 99.9¢ | $56.5k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 88¢ | $49.7k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢ | $65.7k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 81¢ | $53.3k | called |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW SELL 76ers @ 99.9¢ | $132.4k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | MED BUY 76ers @ 30¢ | $40.0k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW SELL Magic @ 99.9¢ | $78.3k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 44¢ | $19.3k | called |
| Magic vs. Pistons | MED SELL Magic @ 99.9¢ | $340.3k 6.8× usual |
excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Trail Blazers @ 17¢ | $10.6k | called |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 17¢ | $28.6k | missed |
| Magic vs. Pistons | MED BUY Magic @ 22¢ | $63.5k | called |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW SELL Hawks @ 31¢ | $28.5k | called |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 32¢ | $20.9k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Warriors @ 42¢ | $19.3k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | LOW SELL Warriors @ 99.9¢ | $57.2k | excluded |
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