Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$166
Return on staked
-18.5%
Bets
3/9 won
Edge vs price
-9.4 pts ±15.6
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 16, 13:08 EDTJul 14, 17:20 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | 54¢ | missed | 101d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 9¢ | missed | 101d ago |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | 36¢ | missed | 105d ago |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | 36¢ | called | 132d ago |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | 55¢ | missed | 140d ago |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | 55¢ | missed | 140d ago |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | 33¢ | called | 140d ago |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | 65¢ | called | 163d ago |
| Warriors vs. Suns | 42¢ | missed | 190d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.