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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did +88.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+88.0 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$102.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$67.3k
Last 30 days −$0 · $2.37M volume · 2,486 trades · since Feb 11, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$68.1k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$743
Closed-position win rate
63%
108 closed
Wallet age · markets
256d
101 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 0.2 | +88.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL No @ 61¢ | $16.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | MED SELL No @ 81¢ | $24.4k | called |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL No @ 95¢ | $22.6k | called |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 86¢ | $10.6k | missed |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $18.0k | called |
 US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4aa266…