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What this means. A wallet put $24.4k on not No, at a price that gave it a 19% chance. It won. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$24.4k
SELL No @ 81¢ · 30,053 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet fearthereaper7 took No (sell) for $24.4k at an average 81¢. At that price the market implied a 19% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $24.4k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 81¢
- Implied odds
- 18.9%
- Size
- $24.4k
- Placed
- Apr 05, 22:24 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 07, 21:24 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- fearthereaper7
- Tx
- 0xf34257d2…
This wallet's graded record
2/2+88.0 pts
expected 0.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +81 ptsNo price · entry 81¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $143.7k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $47.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $68.2k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $110.5k 2.2× usual |
excluded |