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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -2.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-2.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$56.3k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$70.4k
Last 30 days −$0 · $4.74M volume · 6,604 trades · since Jan 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$133.8k
Open P&L · 12 positions
−$10.8k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
272d
1546 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -34.0 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +29.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 66¢ | $10.9k | missed |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $34.8k 3.2× usual |
called |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 92¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xe193b6…