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Istaroth

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 4.7 wins, so it did -8.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-8.0 pts
Called / graded
4/9
Expected from price
4.7
Flagged volume
$4.76M
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.9 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$167k
9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$126k$0$173k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? at 9¢) and the edge is -20.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
25% vs 8% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 76% · n=2
80–100¢
33% vs 96% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$750.1k
Last 30 days −$31.0k · $32.48M volume · 39,318 trades · since Jul 26, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$677.9k
Open P&L · 62 positions
−$268
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
820d
5262 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other944.7-8.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResultOpen on Polymarket
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW SELL No @ 86¢ $21.3k14% 105d agomissed
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?MED SELL Yes @ 23¢ $40.1k77% 122d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 25¢ $11.6k75% 122d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?MED SELL No @ 70¢ $25.2k30% 131d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 80¢ $13.2k20% 134d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 82¢ $13.4k82% 134d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?MED SELL No @ 91.3¢ $28.5k9% 137d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $30.9k1% 140d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 82¢ $13.6k18% 141d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $30.0k0% 145d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $35.2k100% 145d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $40.0k100% 150d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $21.8k96% 158d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 95.4¢ $17.4k95% 158d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL No @ 94.5¢ $10.8k5% 158d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ $14.6k97% 176d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $12.8k97% 177d agocalled
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?LOW SELL No @ 93.2¢ $10.0k7% 178d agomissed
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?LOW SELL No @ 96.5¢ $19.1k3% 178d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ $38.9k1% 190d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $13.4k98% 194d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED SELL No @ 96¢ $29.5k4% 202d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED SELL No @ 96¢ $46.8k4% 202d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $33.0k99% 203d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?HIGH SELL No @ 96.1¢ $184.2k
7.7× usual
4% 203d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED SELL No @ 96.5¢ $29.2k4% 203d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED SELL No @ 96.5¢ $108.0k
4.5× usual
3% 204d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $111.3k
4.7× usual
98% 205d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 97.8¢ $12.5k2% 205d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ $17.9k96% 205d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ $14.4k97% 205d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 98¢ $39.2k2% 205d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ $13.5k96% 205d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 96.6¢ $13.6k97% 206d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $51.0k
2.1× usual
0% 206d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $82.9k
3.5× usual
93% 206d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 96.3¢ $45.7k96% 206d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.8¢ $116.8k
4.9× usual
98% 206d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $19.6k96% 206d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $19.6k0% 206d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 95¢ $180.8k
7.6× usual
95% 207d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ $152.4k
6.4× usual
0% 207d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ $22.4k97% 207d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $12.7k99% 208d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢ $44.1k98% 208d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 90¢ $17.0k10% 209d agomissed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 93.1¢ $13.7k7% 209d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $50.2k
2.1× usual
1% 211d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?MED SELL No @ 93.4¢ $51.3k
2.2× usual
7% 211d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $53.7k
2.3× usual
1% 211d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $49.6k
2.1× usual
1% 211d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ $59.5k
2.5× usual
97% 212d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $166.0k
7.0× usual
1% 212d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.3¢ $13.4k2% 214d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99¢ $22.4k1% 217d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $22.1k1% 217d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ $10.6k98% 217d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $11.0k98% 218d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 97.2¢ $16.7k97% 218d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $10.7k98% 219d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $65.5k
2.7× usual
98% 220d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $20.5k96% 220d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $34.8k97% 220d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ $18.0k98% 222d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢ $19.8k96% 222d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢ $50.9k
2.1× usual
96% 223d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED BUY No @ 96.3¢ $129.3k
5.4× usual
96% 223d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $12.1k97% 223d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ $52.1k
2.2× usual
96% 224d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 85¢ $12.7k15% 231d agomissed
Trump out as President by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $13.9k98% 233d agoexcluded
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.2¢ $11.5k1% 261d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $64.8k
2.7× usual
0% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $11.1k99% 266d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $35.0k100% 267d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $26.5k100% 267d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $43.0k100% 267d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $16.8k100% 268d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $16.9k0% 268d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $71.6k
3.0× usual
100% 269d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $209.3k
8.8× usual
100% 269d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.2¢ $47.2k98% 274d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.1¢ $29.4k2% 274d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.3¢ $16.7k2% 274d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.3¢ $20.0k2% 275d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.6¢ $48.6k
2.0× usual
98% 276d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ $17.7k98% 288d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $21.2k1% 292d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $17.5k99% 294d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $296.3k
12.4× usual
99% 296d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $19.8k99% 297d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢ $10.7k88% 303d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 77¢ $37.8k77% 314d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $30.9k0% 318d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $112.0k
4.7× usual
99% 324d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $14.7k99% 327d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $34.9k99% 328d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $11.0k99% 328d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $52.8k
2.2× usual
99% 328d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $19.5k99% 329d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $60.0k
2.5× usual
99% 332d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $91.6k
3.8× usual
98% 333d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $72.0k
3.0× usual
1% 337d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ $13.4k1% 338d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ $39.0k98% 339d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 98.2¢ $21.0k2% 339d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢ $98.1k
4.1× usual
2% 340d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $43.8k98% 341d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $49.0k
2.1× usual
98% 341d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $20.0k98% 343d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $16.0k98% 345d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢ $12.8k98% 347d agoexcluded

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