← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $35.9k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 30% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+12.9 pts over 25 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$35.9k
SELL Yes @ 70¢ · 51,314 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet ndb1 took Yes (sell) for $35.9k at an average 70¢. At that price the market implied a 30% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $35.9k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 70¢
- Implied odds
- 30.0%
- Size
- $35.9k
- Placed
- Apr 11, 12:43 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 12, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ndb1
- Tx
- 0xdfd2f47f…
This wallet's graded record
16/25+12.9 pts
expected 12.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -30 ptsYes price · entry 70¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $98.5k | excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $49.5k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.7k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $17.9k | excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $87.3k 5.8× usual |
excluded |