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What this means. A wallet put $29.2k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 28% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?missed
$29.2k
BUY Yes @ 28¢ · 103,708 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideFresh walletPolitics

What happened

Wallet 0x9956…15ef took Yes (buy) for $29.2k at an average 28¢. At that price the market implied a 28% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.

Why this was flagged

HIGH
Size $29.2k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Fresh wallet (new or ≤5 markets)+2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 28¢ means
28%chance the market gave
+255American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins

Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.

Entry price
28¢
Implied odds
28.1%
Size
$29.2k
Placed
Apr 11, 08:06 EDT
Market close
Apr 11, 20:00 EDT
Result
No
Counts toward score
yes
Wallet
0x9956…15ef
Tx
0x4aab56d1…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-28.1 pts
expected 0.3 from price
Share this receipt

Entry to resolution

Grade -28 pts
Yes price · entry 28¢ · resolved No
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢ Whale entry 28¢ · $29.2k WHALE $29.2K @ 28¢ MISSED
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.

Other flags on this market

Market page →
MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ $30.0k0% meszarosriskmgmt NEW168d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $10.9k0% Cherut171d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $10.1k100% poloska172d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $21.0k0% 0xf3c6…ecd4175d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $21.0k0% dwFqcd4Z178d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $14.0k1% gopfan2184d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$30.0k
MED New wallet meszarosriskmgmt · 168d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$10.9k
LOW Cherut · 171d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$10.1k
LOW poloska · 172d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$21.0k
LOW 0xf3c6…ecd4 · 175d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$21.0k
LOW dwFqcd4Z · 178d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$14.0k
LOW gopfan2 · 184d ago