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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +5.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+5.6 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$46.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±30.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$19.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $644.7k volume · 664 trades · since Apr 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$11.4k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$7,747
Closed-position win rate
41%
17 closed
Wallet age · markets
206d
20 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | +5.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | LOW SELL Yes @ 30¢ | $13.3k | called |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 81¢ | $32.8k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x25f0e0…