turkxbt

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did +42.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?+$265No · avg 50¢ → 83¢ · $665 Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$34Yes · avg 50¢ → 66¢ · $146 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?−$265Yes · avg 50¢ → 17¢ · $135 Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?+$48Yes · avg 46¢ → 93.8¢ · $94 Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$29Yes · avg 46¢ → 34¢ · $91

Price-adjusted edge

+42.3 pts

Called / graded

3/3

Expected from price

1.7

Flagged volume

$197.1k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$554

Last 30 days +$18 · $2.98M volume · 2,703 trades · since Oct 31, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 494 closed

+$12.4k

Open P&L · 33 positions

−$5,641

Closed-position win rate

82%

494 closed

Wallet age · markets

357d

505 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.6	+42.0 pts
Sports	2	2	1.1	+42.5 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW SELL No @ 42¢	$10.6k	58%	163d ago	called
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines	MED BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 74¢	$145.9k 3.6× usual	74%	200d ago	called
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars	LOW BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 41¢	$40.7k	41%	213d ago	called

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?called

SELL No @ 42¢$10.6k

LOW turkxbt · 163d ago

Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverinescalled

BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 74¢$145.9k

MED turkxbt · 200d ago

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougarscalled

BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 41¢$40.7k

LOW turkxbt · 213d ago

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