aenews2

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 12 of 20. The prices it paid implied about 15.6 wins, so it did -17.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's a losing record: -17.8 pts vs the price over 20 bets. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?+$152No · avg 73¢ → 74¢ · $22.3k NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?−$4,002Yes · avg 22¢ → 18¢ · $14.9k Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?+$788Yes · avg 74¢ → 78¢ · $13.8k Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?+$1,274No · avg 74¢ → 84¢ · $10.4k Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?+$24Yes · avg 96.2¢ → 96.5¢ · $9,067 Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?−$39No · avg 94¢ → 93.5¢ · $7,341 Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?+$159Yes · avg 72¢ → 74¢ · $6,681 Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?−$11.9kYes · avg 13¢ → 3.6¢ · $4,895

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 2 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge

-17.8 pts

Called / graded

12/20

Expected from price

15.6

Flagged volume

$5.87M

Sample size20 graded

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±7.6 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$121k

20 graded bets in the order they resolved · 12 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? at 20¢) and the edge is -23.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

50% vs 19% · n=2

20–40¢

0% vs 36% · n=1

60–80¢

75% vs 73% · n=4

80–100¢

62% vs 92% · n=13

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$2.29M

Last 30 days +$136.2k · $254.96M volume · 81,689 trades · since Jan 14, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Crypto	2	2	1.1	+45.2 pts
Other	9	4	7.9	-43.6 pts
Politics	5	4	4.0	-0.6 pts
Economy	4	2	2.5	-13.1 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 73¢	$22.2k	73%	1d ago	pending
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	MED SELL No @ 86¢	$101.5k 3.6× usual	14%	2d ago	pending
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	MED BUY Yes @ 95.9¢	$51.7k	96%	33d ago	called
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢	$16.7k	82%	35d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 81¢	$32.2k	19%	42d ago	missed
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	MED SELL Yes @ 95¢	$70.0k 2.5× usual	5%	46d ago	missed
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢	$13.1k	70%	48d ago	called
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢	$23.2k	79%	49d ago	called
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94.9¢	$10.1k	95%	86d ago	missed
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$24.3k	100%	86d ago	excluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢	$41.8k	98%	96d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 94.7¢	$16.1k	95%	119d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 94.1¢	$35.5k	94%	119d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 95.1¢	$64.1k 2.3× usual	95%	120d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 78¢	$61.2k 2.2× usual	78%	128d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$41.3k	82%	129d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$61.3k 2.2× usual	100%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$63.4k 2.2× usual	99%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$14.9k	100%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.8¢	$109.6k 3.9× usual	99%	130d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.7¢	$29.3k	98%	130d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95.1¢	$18.5k	95%	130d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 82¢	$474.1k 16.8× usual	82%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 81¢	$34.5k	19%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢	$34.9k	76%	131d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 26¢	$10.3k	26%	132d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 69¢	$137.2k 4.9× usual	69%	132d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 14¢	$14.9k	14%	134d ago	called
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢	$42.1k	95%	135d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢	$21.3k	87%	137d ago	excluded
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 86¢	$15.0k	86%	137d ago	excluded
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢	$23.3k	97%	139d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 99.6¢	$398.4k 14.1× usual	100%	143d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 20¢	$16.2k	20%	145d ago	called
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$18.4k	90%	145d ago	called
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$168.5k 6.0× usual	99%	145d ago	excluded
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90.7¢	$18.8k	91%	146d ago	called
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94.2¢	$21.4k	94%	146d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 94¢	$14.2k	6%	151d ago	excluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢	$19.7k	1%	152d ago	excluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢	$28.6k	2%	152d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢	$26.8k	61%	153d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢	$10.3k	35%	156d ago	missed
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$56.8k 2.0× usual	0%	165d ago	excluded
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	MED BUY No @ 93¢	$77.6k 2.7× usual	93%	165d ago	called
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$27.3k	99%	166d ago	excluded
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$104.5k 3.7× usual	99%	166d ago	excluded
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 70¢	$15.2k	70%	171d ago	missed
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$82.2k 2.9× usual	100%	176d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$49.9k	100%	177d ago	excluded
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	MED SELL No @ 98.5¢	$112.9k 4.0× usual	1%	179d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 29¢	$31.6k	71%	179d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 29¢	$78.0k 2.8× usual	29%	179d ago	missed
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$99.8k 3.5× usual	100%	179d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$13.2k	92%	184d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢	$10.4k	1%	185d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢	$37.7k	98%	185d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 86¢	$11.1k	86%	186d ago	called
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$32.5k	99%	191d ago	excluded
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢	$32.2k	98%	192d ago	excluded
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢	$17.9k	99%	192d ago	excluded
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢	$80.8k 2.9× usual	99%	192d ago	excluded
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢	$55.4k	98%	192d ago	excluded
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢	$31.7k	98%	192d ago	excluded
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98¢	$23.2k	98%	194d ago	excluded
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$58.7k 2.1× usual	99%	196d ago	excluded
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢	$13.4k	98%	196d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$19.0k	96%	201d ago	missed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢	$95.2k 3.4× usual	96%	201d ago	missed
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$188.9k 6.7× usual	100%	204d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	LOW BUY Yes @ 36¢	$11.4k	36%	205d ago	missed
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$154.8k 5.5× usual	0%	206d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$14.1k	99%	209d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 27¢	$17.9k	27%	211d ago	called
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	LOW BUY No @ 59¢	$13.1k	59%	214d ago	missed
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 94.9¢	$92.5k 3.3× usual	95%	223d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	MED BUY Yes @ 90.5¢	$164.3k 5.8× usual	91%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢	$12.5k	62%	237d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$11.9k	93%	239d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$16.8k	90%	239d ago	excluded
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address?	LOW SELL Yes @ 97.6¢	$40.0k	2%	241d ago	excluded
Government shutdown on Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢	$26.4k	87%	253d ago	missed
Government shutdown on Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢	$17.8k	83%	254d ago	missed
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$24.9k	100%	262d ago	excluded
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢	$26.2k	99%	263d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?	LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢	$12.8k	97%	264d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?	LOW BUY No @ 95.3¢	$13.6k	95%	264d ago	excluded
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢	$29.8k	98%	264d ago	excluded
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢	$63.7k 2.3× usual	99%	264d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$51.0k	90%	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢	$26.8k	67%	268d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED BUY No @ 28¢	$37.2k	28%	268d ago	missed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$49.8k	100%	269d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢	$49.6k	99%	270d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED BUY Yes @ 79¢	$122.2k 4.3× usual	79%	270d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢	$12.2k	74%	270d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢	$23.4k	80%	271d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢	$47.1k	78%	271d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 76¢	$19.3k	76%	276d ago	called
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 94.9¢	$25.4k	95%	278d ago	called
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$33.1k	94%	279d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93.3¢	$56.3k	93%	284d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 75¢	$26.2k	75%	286d ago	called
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$72.0k 2.5× usual	100%	296d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$27.9k	100%	318d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢	$209.6k 7.4× usual	1%	318d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$15.0k	0%	330d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$199.4k 7.1× usual	100%	331d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 88¢	$19.6k	12%	360d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢	$22.4k	81%	404d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢	$16.6k	72%	465d ago	called
US recession in 2025?	LOW SELL Yes @ 30¢	$16.9k	70%	509d ago	called

aenews2

Current positions

Open bets: who else is there

Graded P&L at their stakes

Polymarket profile

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