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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 2.4 wins, so it did -5.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-5.9 pts
Called / graded
2/7
Expected from price
2.4
Flagged volume
$1.46M
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$351k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Knicks vs. Spurs at 33¢) and the edge is -18.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 20% · n=2
20–40¢
33% vs 25% · n=3
40–60¢
0% vs 51% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 74% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$992.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $17.00M volume · 3,540 trades · since Dec 13, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2.11M
Open P&L · 10 positions
−$1.11M
Closed-position win rate
69%
112 closed
Wallet age · markets
315d
122 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 2 | 2.4 | -5.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED SELL Yes @ 78¢ | $47.1k | missed |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 79¢ | $16.3k | missed |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED SELL Yes @ 80¢ | $27.1k | missed |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL No @ 80¢ | $12.5k | missed |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Knicks @ 33¢ | $68.3k | called |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | HIGH BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 74¢ | $980.2k 20.8× usual |
called |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 50¢ | $48.5k | excluded |
| Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 52¢ | $74.2k | excluded |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | LOW BUY Purdue Boilermakers @ 29¢ | $21.6k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Pistons @ 56¢ | $55.0k | excluded |
 Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) | LOW BUY Duke Blue Devils @ 51¢ | $29.5k | missed |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $49.9k | excluded |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $28.0k | called |
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